[148411] in cryptography@c2.net mail archive
Re: [Cryptography] Size of the PGP userbase?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Phillip Hallam-Baker)
Wed Dec 11 18:53:29 2013
X-Original-To: cryptography@metzdowd.com
In-Reply-To: <CAGHP0pLgLAYiwH0W+tPWAjOHyDhm2a4akbQecCggi39tq8K1Xg@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 16:35:41 -0500
From: Phillip Hallam-Baker <hallam@gmail.com>
Cc: "cryptography@metzdowd.com" <cryptography@metzdowd.com>
Errors-To: cryptography-bounces+crypto.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@metzdowd.com
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Thanks for all the responses on and off the list.
The reason I wanted to ask is that I wanted to have a figure from a source
that the PGP community is not going to see as an attack. I am not doing
this as a competitive thing, I want to look at the ugly facts so that we
can change them.
Comodo has 155K active free S/MIME certs and the same number of paid certs.
Which is a lot more than I had expected.
Estimating like with like (current versus expired) I think we can safely
estimate a pool of people who have established keys for both specs at
roughly 3 million and a pool with currently active keys of between a half
million and a million.
My view is that both groups have hit a wall and that there is not going to
be a big uptick in deployment unless we do something to change the game.
They are big numbers that I read as indicating a big demand for email
security. But when we look at actual day to day use the results are far
more depressing. Schemes like dropbox and tumbleweed have far more use.
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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_extra">Thanks for all the responses on=
and off the list.
</div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra">The r=
eason I wanted to ask is that I wanted to have a figure from a source that =
the PGP community is not going to see as an attack. I am not doing this as =
a competitive thing, I want to look at the ugly facts so that we can change=
them.</div>
<div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><=
div class=3D"gmail_extra">Comodo has 155K active free S/MIME certs and the =
same number of paid certs. Which is a lot more than I had expected.=A0</div=
><div class=3D"gmail_extra">
<br></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra">Estimating like with like (current ver=
sus expired) I think we can safely estimate a pool of people who have estab=
lished keys for both specs at roughly 3 million and a pool with currently a=
ctive keys of between a half million and a million.</div>
<div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><=
div class=3D"gmail_extra">My view is that both groups have hit a wall and t=
hat there is not going to be a big uptick in deployment unless we do someth=
ing to change the game.</div>
<div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra">They are bi=
g numbers that I read as indicating a big demand for email security. But wh=
en we look at actual day to day use the results are far more depressing. Sc=
hemes like dropbox and tumbleweed have far more use.</div>
</div>
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