[148845] in cryptography@c2.net mail archive
Re: [Cryptography] On Security Architecture, The Panopticon,
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Robert Christian)
Tue Dec 31 03:29:14 2013
X-Original-To: cryptography@metzdowd.com
From: Robert Christian <robertjchristian@gmail.com>
In-Reply-To: <C4D742F6-CA07-493A-8E49-B525E4559972@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2013 19:40:42 -0800
To: John Kelsey <crypto.jmk@gmail.com>
Cc: Russ Nelson <nelson@crynwr.com>,
Cryptography Mailing List <cryptography@metzdowd.com>
Errors-To: cryptography-bounces+crypto.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@metzdowd.com
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On Dec 30, 2013, at 1:45 PM, John Kelsey <crypto.jmk@gmail.com> wrote:
> Distinguish the different uses of bitcoins. For buying things online, =
yeah, there's a demand for bitcoins based on wanting to be able to do =
online transactions. To the extent there are transactions that lots of =
people prefer to do in bitcoins (whether legal or illegal), there will =
be a certain amount of demand for bitcoins based simply on how many =
bitcoins are either involved in a transaction right now, or are being =
held ready to be used for a transaction soon. But bitcoins are online, =
and their volatility makes them an awful store of value. (They can be a =
speculative investment, but they aren't where you'd want to park your =
retirement fund on your 60th birthday.) They're too volatile to be a =
good unit to price things in, too. =20
>=20
> If bitcoins become a very important way to conduct business online, =
and they remain as volatile as they are now, I expect people will buy =
bitcoins only when they need to do an online transaction. Their actual =
wealth will be kept in dollars or euros or something. The inherent =
traceabiliity of Bitcoin probably creates more demand for holding =
bitcoins, as well, oddly enough. (You need to go through a laundry or =
something to get any decent anonymity, which means more latency in your =
purchases, which means more demand for bitcoins.) =20
>=20
> I am pretty skeptical that much of the economic theory around monetary =
inflation or deflation applies very cleanly to bitcoins, given that it's =
all online, with very low transaction costs, and is likely used only to =
do specific transactions. =20
>=20
> =97John
>> Here are my sentiments:
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Regarding the liquidity trap concern:
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Here is a worst case scenario:
M2 Monetary Supply is 66 trillion. If it all moved to BitCoin, each coin =
would be worth 3.1 million dollars.
Math: 66000000000000/21000000 =3D $3,142,857
One Satoshi is the smallest possible denomination of BitCoin at =
0.00000001 of a BitCoin.
If all of M2 moved into BitCoins, each Satoshi would be worth =
3142857*0.00000001 =3D .03, or three cents. And since the M2 supply is =
increasing at around 6% per year, all else being equal, a Satoshi would =
reduce to a penny in about 20 years.=20
Math: (1.06)^19 =3D 3
This is simplistic and extreme, but points out that the sheer numbers =
required to cause concern over the 21 million dollar cap just aren't =
there for the foreseeable future.
If this isn=92t enough to address the deflationary effect , consider =
that BitCoin is just a single form of Crypto Currency. It=92s very =
plausible that a second alt coin, possibly an inflationary one, will be =
used in addition to BitCoin. Where BitCoin would serve as more of a =
store of value, and an alternate coin would serve as every day cash. In =
fact, this is already being experimented with today.
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Regarding calling it an investment:
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
People are trying to make sense of something we=92ve never seen before =
in history. This is a new invention. And it is money by definition. =
There=92s no more =93if=94 when you can use it to purchase goods, =
gamble, and settle debts. We=92re already at this point.
It can be seen as an investment from the perspective of =93If I spend US =
$1,000 on BitCoin today, I might make a 2x return by end of year.=94 But =
it=92s very short sided trying to compare it to an equity. As mentioned =
above, it makes more sense to look at in terms of =93how much of the =
overall money supply will be made up of bitcoin?=94 Today it=92s 10 =
Billion US dollars and growing. That's nothing to scoff at.
Crypto-currency is an invention first and foremost. And at this point we =
are engaging in an experiment. That=92s why it=92s risky. We don=92t =
know.
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Regarding calling it a bubble:
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
A bubble is =93A theory that security prices rise above their true value =
and will continue to do so until prices go into free fall and the bubble =
bursts.=94=20
To call it a bubble means that you must have a tangible grasp on its =
true value.
Nobody knows what the true value is, but we know that:
- As of this posting, BitCoin exchanges with the US dollar at around =
$750 per coin.
- You can use it today to buy a grilled cheese sandwich and a haircut in =
Seattle, and coffee in San Francisco
- You can also use it today to buy computers online, houses, cars, and =
to bet on sports, play poker, etc.
- As much as Bitcoin can be volatile, it is still very attractive as a =
store of wealth for citizens of countries whose governments are =
destroying their local currencies. This is already happening today.
The network affect is already here. People want to use it, and it=92s =
adoption rate is exponential.=20
If BitCoin saw only a 1% adoption worldwide, each coin would be valued =
at $31,000 US dollars. =46rom that perspective, it=92s a deal today at =
$750 per coin.
The point being, you can=92t call it a bubble unless you can identify =
what its value should be.=20
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Regarding comparisons to Beanie Babies and Tulips:
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Bitcoin is a currency that is easier and faster to transact on a large =
scale than anything else in existence. It's not a collectable. This =
comparison is simply misguided.
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Regarding "It's too complex for the average citizen to understand and =
secure against getting hacked/swindled":
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Very true today, but today this is less true than it was three years =
ago. The ecosystem around BitCoin and Crypto-currency in general is =
growing rapidly, and backed by leading venture capitalists investing in =
startups, big banks, and big technology companies like IBM. The issues =
around ease of use will dissolve in a relatively short amount of time. =
And hacking will always be a problem, just like bank robberies and =
muggings will always exist. As these issues are diminished over the =
coming years, we'll see more mainstream adoption.
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
What I think the real issues are:
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
Issues in the underlying architecture, including the ability to replace =
existing crypto algorithms, the 51% attack, transaction time as Bitcoin =
scales, and potential issues with address collision. But these can be =
solved over time within Bitcoin, or another alt coin.
Political issues like taxation, cross-border exchanges, and central =
governance. This is the biggest can of worms, but not the type of =
problem we should call unsolvable. In fact these concepts may very well =
be reinvented and evolved in a better way. My point here is that just =
because it doesn't fit into an existing framework doesn't mean it won't =
work. This is a problem that great inventions commonly encounter, and =
not a de-facto deal-breaker.
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
In summary
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
This is a new invention, and directly addresses many issues we have with =
today's mediums of exchange. It can be compared to many things, but it =
is not any of them. It's an experiment, and an exciting one at that.
Today it represents .015% of the world's currency. The question we ought =
to be asking is, what will that number look like in 2014, 2015, and the =
foreseeable future?
> _______________________________________________
> The cryptography mailing list
> cryptography@metzdowd.com
> http://www.metzdowd.com/mailman/listinfo/cryptography
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<html><head><meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html =
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-webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: =
after-white-space;"><br><div><div>On Dec 30, 2013, at 1:45 PM, John =
Kelsey <<a =
href=3D"mailto:crypto.jmk@gmail.com">crypto.jmk@gmail.com</a>> =
wrote:</div><br class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote =
type=3D"cite">Distinguish the different uses of bitcoins. For =
buying things online, yeah, there's a demand for bitcoins based on =
wanting to be able to do online transactions. To the extent there =
are transactions that lots of people prefer to do in bitcoins (whether =
legal or illegal), there will be a certain amount of demand for bitcoins =
based simply on how many bitcoins are either involved in a transaction =
right now, or are being held ready to be used for a transaction soon. =
But bitcoins are online, and their volatility makes them an awful =
store of value. (They can be a speculative investment, but they =
aren't where you'd want to park your retirement fund on your 60th =
birthday.) They're too volatile to be a good unit to price things in, =
too. <br><br>If bitcoins become a very important way to conduct =
business online, and they remain as volatile as they are now, I expect =
people will buy bitcoins only when they need to do an online =
transaction. Their actual wealth will be kept in dollars or euros =
or something. The inherent traceabiliity of Bitcoin probably =
creates more demand for holding bitcoins, as well, oddly enough. (You =
need to go through a laundry or something to get any decent anonymity, =
which means more latency in your purchases, which means more demand for =
bitcoins.) <br><br>I am pretty skeptical that much of the economic =
theory around monetary inflation or deflation applies very cleanly to =
bitcoins, given that it's all online, with very low transaction costs, =
and is likely used only to do specific transactions. =
<br><br>=97John<br></blockquote><div><br></div>>> Here are =
my sentiments:</div><div><br></div><div><span style=3D"color: rgb(26, =
26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida =
grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; =
line-height: 14px;">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D</span><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); =
font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', =
tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: =
14px;"><span style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica =
Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, =
sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;">Regarding the liquidity =
trap concern:</span><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: =
'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, =
arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><span =
style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', =
Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; =
font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D</span><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, =
26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida =
grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; =
line-height: 14px;"><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: =
'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, =
arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><span =
style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', =
Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; =
font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;">Here is a worst case =
scenario:</span><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: =
'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, =
arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><br =
style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', =
Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; =
font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><span style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, =
26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', =
tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: =
14px;">M2 Monetary Supply is 66 trillion. If it all moved to BitCoin, =
each coin would be worth 3.1 million dollars.</span><br style=3D"color: =
rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, =
'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; =
line-height: 14px;"><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: =
'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, =
arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><span =
style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', =
Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; =
font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;">Math: 66000000000000/21000000 =3D =
$3,142,857</span><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: =
'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, =
arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><br =
style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', =
Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; =
font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><span style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, =
26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', =
tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: =
14px;">One Satoshi is the smallest possible denomination of BitCoin at =
0.00000001 of a BitCoin.</span><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); =
font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', =
tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: =
14px;"><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica =
Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, =
sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><span style=3D"color: =
rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, =
'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; =
line-height: 14px;">If all of M2 moved into BitCoins, each Satoshi would =
be worth 3142857*0.00000001 =3D .03, or three cents. And since the M2 =
supply is increasing at around 6% per year, all else being equal, a =
Satoshi would reduce to a penny in about 20 years. </span><br =
style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', =
Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; =
font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"><br style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, =
26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', =
tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: =
14px;"><span style=3D"color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica =
Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, =
sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;">Math: (1.06)^19 =3D =
3</span><span class=3D"text_exposed_show" style=3D"display: inline; =
color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, =
'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; =
line-height: 14px;"><br><br>This is simplistic and extreme, but points =
out that the sheer numbers required to cause concern over the 21 million =
dollar cap just aren't there for the foreseeable future.<br><br>If this =
isn=92t enough to address the deflationary effect , consider that =
BitCoin is just a single form of Crypto Currency. It=92s very plausible =
that a second alt coin, possibly an inflationary one, will be used in =
addition to BitCoin. Where BitCoin would serve as more of a store of =
value, and an alternate coin would serve as every day cash. In fact, =
this is already being experimented with =
today.<br><br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br>Regarding calling it an =
investment:<br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br><br>People are trying to make sense of something =
we=92ve never seen before in history. This is a new invention. And it is =
money by definition. There=92s no more =93if=94 when you can use it to =
purchase goods, gamble, and settle debts. We=92re already at this =
point.<br><br>It can be seen as an investment from the perspective of =
=93If I spend US $1,000 on BitCoin today, I might make a 2x return by =
end of year.=94 But it=92s very short sided trying to compare it to an =
equity. As mentioned above, it makes more sense to look at in terms of =
=93how much of the overall money supply will be made up of bitcoin?=94 =
Today it=92s 10 Billion US dollars and growing. That's nothing to scoff =
at.<br><br>Crypto-currency is an invention first and foremost. And at =
this point we are engaging in an experiment. That=92s why it=92s risky. =
We don=92t know.<br><br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br>Regarding calling it a =
bubble:<br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D<br><br>A bubble is =93A theory that security prices rise =
above their true value and will continue to do so until prices go into =
free fall and the bubble bursts.=94 <br><br>To call it a bubble =
means that you must have a tangible grasp on its true =
value.<br><br>Nobody knows what the true value is, but we know =
that:<br><br>- As of this posting, BitCoin exchanges with the US dollar =
at around $750 per coin.<br>- You can use it today to buy a grilled =
cheese sandwich and a haircut in Seattle, and coffee in San =
Francisco<br>- You can also use it today to buy computers online, =
houses, cars, and to bet on sports, play poker, etc.<br>- As much as =
Bitcoin can be volatile, it is still very attractive as a store of =
wealth for citizens of countries whose governments are destroying their =
local currencies. This is already happening today.<br><br>The network =
affect is already here. People want to use it, and it=92s adoption rate =
is exponential. <br><br>If BitCoin saw only a 1% adoption =
worldwide, each coin would be valued at $31,000 US dollars. =46rom that =
perspective, it=92s a deal today at $750 per coin.<br><br>The point =
being, you can=92t call it a bubble unless you can identify what its =
value should be. <br><br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br>Regarding comparisons to Beanie Babies =
and Tulips:<br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br><br>Bitcoin is a currency that is easier and faster =
to transact on a large scale than anything else in existence. It's not a =
collectable. This comparison is simply =
misguided.<br><br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br>Regarding "It's too complex for the average =
citizen to understand and secure against getting =
hacked/swindled":<br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br><br>Very true today, but today this is less =
true than it was three years ago. The ecosystem around BitCoin and =
Crypto-currency in general is growing rapidly, and backed by leading =
venture capitalists investing in startups, big banks, and big technology =
companies like IBM. The issues around ease of use will dissolve in a =
relatively short amount of time. And hacking will always be a problem, =
just like bank robberies and muggings will always exist. As these issues =
are diminished over the coming years, we'll see more mainstream =
adoption.<br><br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br>What I think the real issues =
are:<br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D<br>Issues in the underlying architecture, including the =
ability to replace existing crypto algorithms, the 51% attack, =
transaction time as Bitcoin scales, and potential issues with address =
collision. But these can be solved over time within Bitcoin, or another =
alt coin.<br><br>Political issues like taxation, cross-border exchanges, =
and central governance. This is the biggest can of worms, but not the =
type of problem we should call unsolvable. In fact these concepts may =
very well be reinvented and evolved in a better way. My point here is =
that just because it doesn't fit into an existing framework doesn't mean =
it won't work. This is a problem that great inventions commonly =
encounter, and not a de-facto =
deal-breaker.<br><br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br>In =
summary<br>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D<br><br>This is a new invention, and directly addresses many =
issues we have with today's mediums of exchange. It can be compared to =
many things, but it is not any of them. It's an experiment, and an =
exciting one at that.<br><br>Today it represents .015% of the world's =
currency. The question we ought to be asking is, what will that number =
look like in 2014, 2015, and the foreseeable =
future?</span><br><blockquote =
type=3D"cite">_______________________________________________<br>The =
cryptography mailing list<br><a =
href=3D"mailto:cryptography@metzdowd.com">cryptography@metzdowd.com</a><br=
>http://www.metzdowd.com/mailman/listinfo/cryptography<br></blockquote></d=
iv><br></body></html>=
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