[149190] in cryptography@c2.net mail archive
Re: [Cryptography] Timing of cyberattacks -- is this a joke?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Phillip Hallam-Baker)
Tue Jan 21 22:02:47 2014
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In-Reply-To: <52DE68D2.8010403@tik.ee.ethz.ch>
Date: Tue, 21 Jan 2014 18:33:32 -0500
From: Phillip Hallam-Baker <hallam@gmail.com>
To: Stephan Neuhaus <stephan.neuhaus@tik.ee.ethz.ch>
Cc: Cryptography List <cryptography@metzdowd.com>
Errors-To: cryptography-bounces+crypto.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@metzdowd.com
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On Tue, Jan 21, 2014 at 7:32 AM, Stephan Neuhaus <
stephan.neuhaus@tik.ee.ethz.ch> wrote:
> This paper http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/01/08/1322638111 has
> been making some waves; I've heard it discussed in several podcasts to
> which I subscribe.
>
> Mathematically, the paper is not very difficult, and the treatment more
> than superficial (using tables to find the optimum of a smooth function of
> two variables), and some assumptions questionable (constant payoff discount
> rate), but from a practical perspective, it's useless because none of the
> parameters that go into the equations can be estimated robustly. (As far as
> I could see, there's also no discussion of how sensitive the equations are
> to errors in the parameter estimates.)
>
> So my question is: is this paper just an elaborate hoax or is this to be
> taken seriously? To be honest, it has the feel of the Sokal paper, just
> without the latter's excellent exploitation of jargon. (Or perhaps I'm just
> too blind to see it.)
>
Since the paper is by Robert Axelrod, yes THAT Axelrod and it is an
application of game theory to timing of uses of attacks I would say it is
genuine.
I don't see the paper as predicting when the attacks would happen, rather
it is considering what the optimum time to use an attack is for an
attacker. The model is only predictive if it is assumed that the attackers
adopt an optimal strategy.
--
Website: http://hallambaker.com/
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<div dir=3D"ltr"><br><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br><br><div class=3D"gmail=
_quote">On Tue, Jan 21, 2014 at 7:32 AM, Stephan Neuhaus <span dir=3D"ltr">=
<<a href=3D"mailto:stephan.neuhaus@tik.ee.ethz.ch" target=3D"_blank">ste=
phan.neuhaus@tik.ee.ethz.ch</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1p=
x #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">This paper <a href=3D"http://www.pnas.org/co=
ntent/early/2014/01/08/1322638111" target=3D"_blank">http://www.pnas.org/co=
ntent/<u></u>early/2014/01/08/1322638111</a> has been making some waves; I&=
#39;ve heard it discussed in several podcasts to which I subscribe.<br>
<br>
Mathematically, the paper is not very difficult, and the treatment more tha=
n superficial (using tables to find the optimum of a smooth function of two=
variables), and some assumptions questionable (constant payoff discount ra=
te), but from a practical perspective, it's useless because none of the=
parameters that go into the equations can be estimated robustly. (As far a=
s I could see, there's also no discussion of how sensitive the equation=
s are to errors in the parameter estimates.)<br>
<br>
So my question is: is this paper just an elaborate hoax or is this to be ta=
ken seriously? To be honest, it has the feel of the Sokal paper, just witho=
ut the latter's excellent exploitation of jargon. (Or perhaps I'm j=
ust too blind to see it.)<br>
</blockquote><div><br></div><div>Since the paper is by Robert Axelrod, yes =
THAT Axelrod and it is an application of game theory to timing of uses of a=
ttacks I would say it is genuine.</div><div><br></div><div>I don't see =
the paper as predicting when the attacks would happen, rather it is conside=
ring what the optimum time to use an attack is for an attacker. The model i=
s only predictive if it is assumed that the attackers adopt an optimal stra=
tegy.=A0</div>
</div><div><br></div>-- <br>Website: <a href=3D"http://hallambaker.com/">ht=
tp://hallambaker.com/</a><br>
</div></div>
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