[1592] in cryptography@c2.net mail archive
Re: CBO estimates
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Carl Ellison)
Tue Sep 23 13:49:50 1997
Date: Tue, 23 Sep 1997 11:31:35 -0400
To: Steven Bellovin <smb@research.att.com>
From: Carl Ellison <cme@cybercash.com>
Cc: cryptography@c2.net
In-Reply-To: <199709222259.SAA17917@postal.research.att.com>
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At 06:59 PM 9/22/97 -0400, Steven Bellovin wrote:
> Note also that the 1996 gross for crypto in the US was given
> as $100M -- half the minimum estimated cost of GAK (unless I
> misread the web page).
>
>Well, one of us has misread something -- here's the passage I'm quoting
>I'm quoting:
>
> Revenues generated by the sales of U.S. encryption products and
> services (including hardware and software) were between $500
> million and $1 billion in 1996 and are growing rapidly. The
> Commerce Department describes the growth of this market as
> "explosive," especially with the advent of commerce on the
> Internet. Encryption software that would facilitate credit card
> and other secure transactions over the Internet is widely
> perceived to be a requirement for the development of electronic
> commerce. The increased use of e-mail is also spurring the
> demand for inexpensive, easy-to-use encryption to ensure
> confidentiality comparable to that of conventional mail.
>
>Later on, they project $2 billion for 2000.
You're right. I was reading from a different place -- and now that I go
back to find it, I can't.
So: $2B total revenue in 2000 and $2B GAK cost in 2000, if we believe NSA.
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