[1607] in cryptography@c2.net mail archive
Re: POSSIBLE CALENDAR FOR PRESENTATION TO THE SUPREME COURT
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Michael Froomkin - U.Miami School )
Wed Sep 24 11:31:12 1997
Date: Wed, 24 Sep 1997 09:49:21 -0400 (EDT)
From: "Michael Froomkin - U.Miami School of Law" <froomkin@law.miami.edu>
To: "Vincent L. Diaz" <vldiaz@san.rr.com>
cc: cryptography@c2.net
In-Reply-To: <199709240202.TAA11005@mail.san.rr.com>
[when will the S.Ct. get its hand on an export case?]
This is impossible to predict, in part because the Court has the right to
choose which cases it hears. The lower bound is about next May, if the 9th
circuit Bernstein case is decided quickly, the government loses, and
emergency appeal is requested and granted. This chances of each of the
contingencies all happening is IMHO remote. Even if the government loses,
the SCT is more likely to issue another stay and calendar it for the
following term. But this depends in part on how congested the docket is
by the time the request gets to the court.
The histogram looks fuller for an argument on Bernstein (only) next term
(i.e some time between oct '98 and may '99). Odds grow towards unity as
soon as two different courts of appeal rule in any significantly
conflicting way, but that could take you out yet another year or even more
... Recall also that the court will be much much more likely to hear an
appeal if the government LOST in the court of appeal than if it won. This
is not simply pro-government bias: the SCT rightly thinks that holding
laws unconstitional is a matter presumptively more suitable for its
review, regardless of topic, than decisions saying that laws are
constitutional.
Hope this helps.
A. Michael Froomkin | +1 (305) 284-4285; +1 (305) 284-6506 (fax)
Associate Professor of Law | Fight mandatory key "escrow"!
U. Miami School of Law | froomkin@law.miami.edu
P.O. Box 248087 | http://www.law.miami.edu/~froomkin/
Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA | It's hot here.
