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Mime-Version: 1.0 Message-Id: <p05111719b905d6cb467a@[66.149.49.6]> In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.40.0205130943540.5126-100000@newbolt.sonic.net> Date: Mon, 13 May 2002 17:01:19 -0400 To: bear <bear@sonic.net>, Anonymous <nobody@remailer.privacy.at> From: "R. A. Hettinga" <rah@shipwright.com> Cc: cryptography@wasabisystems.com Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" At 9:45 AM -0700 on 5/13/02, bear wrote: > One thousand years = 10 iterations of Moore's law plus one year. > Call it 15-16 years? Or maybe 20-21 since Moore's seems to have > gotten slower lately? Moore himself said in an article in Forbes a few years ago that the cost of fabs themselves would eventually bring a stop to Moore's Law. He couldn't see constructing a $100 billion dollar fab, and right now, fabs are in the $1-$10 billion dollar range and going up... He figured it to be the 20-teens or so for diminishing returns to finally catch up with Moore's Law, if I remember right. If a water shortage on Taiwan doesn't stop it dead in it's tracks this summer. ;-). Cheers, RAH -- ----------------- R. A. Hettinga <mailto: rah@ibuc.com> The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/> 44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA "... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity, [predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire' --------------------------------------------------------------------- The Cryptography Mailing List Unsubscribe by sending "unsubscribe cryptography" to majordomo@wasabisystems.com
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