[1571] in cryptography@c2.net mail archive
Re: CBO estimates
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Steven Bellovin)
Mon Sep 22 21:12:42 1997
To: Carl Ellison <cme@cybercash.com>
cc: cryptography@c2.net
Date: Mon, 22 Sep 1997 18:59:30 -0400
From: Steven Bellovin <smb@research.att.com>
I talked with one of the authors. He had estimates from TIS
and NSA for the per-user cost of GAK and those were about an
order of magnitude apart (NSA more expensive).
This is very important. NSA has far more experience keeping keys
very secure.
Note that these are costs *per year* -- not one-time costs.
Right, good point.
Note also that the 1996 gross for crypto in the US was given
as $100M -- half the minimum estimated cost of GAK (unless I
misread the web page).
Well, one of us has misread something -- here's the passage I'm quoting
I'm quoting:
Revenues generated by the sales of U.S. encryption products and
services (including hardware and software) were between $500
million and $1 billion in 1996 and are growing rapidly. The
Commerce Department describes the growth of this market as
"explosive," especially with the advent of commerce on the
Internet. Encryption software that would facilitate credit card
and other secure transactions over the Internet is widely
perceived to be a requirement for the development of electronic
commerce. The increased use of e-mail is also spurring the
demand for inexpensive, easy-to-use encryption to ensure
confidentiality comparable to that of conventional mail.
Later on, they project $2 billion for 2000.
